The first pay-per-view of 2013 is, as ever, one of the big ones.  From here through to the spring, the WWE will be beating the phrase “Road to Wrestlemania” into the ground, because the next few months will be entirely about the build to Wrestlemania at the start of April.  Traditionally that starts here, because the winner of the titular battle royal is the challenger for the world title at that show.

Now, in practice, this has been undermined in recent years, because (a) they have two world titles, one for Raw and one for Smackdown, and so they can palm off the Rumble winner on the secondary Smackdown title if they want; and (b) there’s now a February pay-per-view which has to be filled, which means that in practice the Mania main event isn’t fixed here after all.  But still, it’s an important show in storyline terms, and it has an established history of being used to help rising stars break from the pack.  Whether that’s going to happen this year is maybe another question.

Although the Rumble match has usually been regarded as a major draw in its own right, the build for it this year has been pretty much formulaic, because all the company’s real attention is on the actual main event…

1.  WWE Title: CM Punk v The Rock.  Yes, it’s a rare actual match for the Rock.  And since we know he’s booked through to Wrestlemania, it’s entirely likely that he could win.  In fact, it seems virtually certain that he’ll end up going in to Wrestlemania as the defending champion.  But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to win it here, because there’s always that February show where he could pick it up.

CM Punk is still the champion on Raw – which at this point is very firmly established as the “real” world title, with the Smackdown belt plainly a distant second.  He’s had the title since November 2011 and if he’s going to lose it, he’s certainly not going to suffer too badly from losing it to Rock.

There’s an added stipulation here that Punk will be stripped of the title if the Shield interfere.  Punk’s last few title defences have all basically involved him being bailed out by the Shield – Dean Ambrose, Seth Rollins, and Roman Reigns – a group of rookies (i.e., one actual rookie and two indie veterans) in riot gear-style outfits who rarely wrestle on television but do a lot of random attacking.  The gimmick is that Punk and the Shield deny any connection with one another, and the Shield claim to be pursuing some sort of vigilante justice agenda of their own.  We are not supposed to believe a word of this.

Also floating around on the fringes of this storyline is Brad Maddox, a character who is not a member of the Shield, nor even on the WWE roster, but who has previously also helped Punk out with similar plausible-deniability arrangements.  There is no such stipulation about him getting involved – hint, hint.  Then again, he was supposed to have been beaten up backstage on Smackdown, which might help to get him out of the picture.

Punk and Rock are a bit of a style clash as personalities, but then that’s kind of Punk’s gimmick – he’s the self-proclaimed outsider who doesn’t play along with the company’s house style.  I expect them to have an excellent match, and I would guess that Rock is probably going to win more or less clean.  (And then the Shield can attack him afterwards.)  But there are other possibilities.  A clean win for Punk, as the heel, is almost entirely out of the question, but he could screw his way to a win by other means, or even decide that if it’s all going south, he might as well call in the Shield.  That’s not going to be a popular ending with the live crowd, but since the Rumble itself serves as the nominal main event, the company might consider that it’s workable – it doesn’t have to close the show.

2.  World Heavyweight Title – Last Man Standing: Alberto Del Rio v The Big Show.  This is a very wonky piece of writing on a number of levels.  Alberto Del Rio has been on the roster for around three years, playing the traditional heel role of Condescending Rich Guy.  Entirely out of nowhere, he has now turned babyface – a role for which his main qualification was his loveable comedy sidekick Ricardo Rodriguez, who serves as his personal ring announcer in inimitably enthusiastic style.

Supposedly this was always the long term plan for Del Rio, on the logic that the company needs a strong Mexican babyface to appeal to that demographic, Rey Mysterio won’t be around forever, and Sin Cara hasn’t really taken off.  Nonetheless, it’s an entirely undermotivated switch even by the standards of professional wrestling, and one that was ineptly handled in two crucial ways.  First, it happened out of the blue in a filler segment on a PPV (so most of the audience didn’t see it), and second, they almost immediately had him revert to heel mode for one night so that he could serve as a comedy villain on the Christmas episode.  It’s just been a terrible mess and so far it’s served mainly to confuse the audience.  Reports from live shows suggest that some crowds have actually failed to realise that he’s now supposed to be a babyface.

Nonetheless, Del Rio has switched alignment and (equally out of nowhere) won the Smackdown title from Big Show on TV.  In a last man standing match.  Which they’re now going to repeat on PPV.

And… why?  We all know that Del Rio surely isn’t going to lose the title straight back, so you’d think they’d at least come up with a different stipulation.  It’s a series of baffling decisions across the board, and while the match itself is likely to be fine, the writing is confused to put it politely.

3.  The 2013 Royal Rumble.  A reminder of the rules, just for anyone reading this who doesn’t follow wrestling.  (And you’ve made it this far in?)  It’s a thirty man battle royal.  Everyone draws a number.  Wrestlers 1 and 2 start, everyone else enters at “regular intervals” – usually around 90 seconds, but they tend to be a bit flexible if the guys in the ring are running fast or slow.  Elimination occurs by being thrown over the top rope, and both feet must touch the floor.  So yes, there’s bound to be at least one spot where somebody manages to escape elimination because both feet did not touch the floor – though with 29 eliminations to get through, it won’t necessarily be an important one.

Only eighteen entrants have been announced; the rest will presumably be a mixture of surprise returns, and lower-card wrestlers padding out the card.  Realistically, the favourite is obviously John Cena, because the universal assumption is that he’ll be challenging Rock for the WWE Title at Wrestlemania in a rematch from last year, so that he can finally get his win back.

If anyone else wins, it’s because they’ll be going for the Smackdown title; the obvious candidate there would be Dolph Ziggler.  But Ziggler – despite being a heel – has been saddled with the dreaded “forced to enter at number 1 or 2” gimmick, thanks to a storyline too stupid to bear repetition, which almost certainly means that he’ll have a respectably long and impressive run, but won’t win.  More to the point, Ziggler still has his Money in the Bank briefcase which allows him to challenge for the Smackdown title whenever he wants.  So if he really wants to challenge for it the main event at Wrestlemania, rather than waiting for an ambush opportunity (and he’s passed up plenty already), who’s to stop him?  Actually, I wouldn’t be shocked if his storyline involved just that: feeling that he’s been screwed out of winning the Rumble, Ziggler simply announces that he’s cashing in his title shot at Wrestlemania anyway.

Here’s how the other sixteen known entrants break down, though.  Randy Orton and Sheamus are both established main eventers and former world champions.  They could win, but there’s not much point because neither of them has an obvious match waiting.  Conceivably Orton could turn heel and challenge Del Rio, but I think Del Rio’s position as a babyface is so fragile that he needs to be booked against established heels for the foreseeable future.  Miz is also a former WWE champion but he’s firmly back in the midcard now, and I can’t imagine him winning.  Ryback, who had a few title shots against CM Punk and got screwed every time, also could win, but it doesn’t seem wise; better to continue his feud against Punk so that, with the title out of the picture, he can finally get that emphatic victory.

Antonio Cesaro, Wade Barrett and Team Hell No (Daniel Bryan & Kane) are the holders of the various midcard titles, and none of them is going to win here.  Long-serving midcarder Kofi Kingston has nothing better to do right now.  The Great Khali is virtually immobile, and not in a million years will he be asked to main event the biggest show of the year.  And Titus O’Neil, Darren Young, Heath Slater, Drew McIntyre and Jinder Mahal are lower midcard heels from the tag team division, making up the numbers.

Finally, there’s Bo Dallas, a wrestler from the developmental promotion NXT who won a tournament at the Fan Axxess show yesterday to earn a wild card slot.  His inclusion is interesting.  NXT does make a television show – it’s a one hour studio-based show filmed at Full Sail University in Florida, and broadcast internationally.  Until recently it wasn’t available in the US, but apparently you can now get it on Hulu.  It’s often a surprisingly good show, and a lot better paced than the bloated three hour Raw format.  It helps that the WWE seems to have finally come to grips with the idea of using wrestlers who were successful on the indie circuit, rather than rebuild everyone in their own image.

The WWE has now started openly acknowledging the existence of NXT – Brad Maddox and the Shield were identified as NXT wrestlers when they appeared.  NXT’s status in continuity remains a bit wonky, however; Ziggler’s bodyguard Big E Langston still holds the “prestigious” NXT Heavyweight Championship, but this is never acknowledged on air.

Dallas is a rather generic babyface who gets pushed on NXT more for want of anyone else to fill the role; he’s okay, but he’s hardly the most interesting person there.  In fact, generally speaking, NXT has been a lot better at producing compelling heel gimmicks, such as the laid-back cult leader Bray Wyatt, a genial psychopath who watches his followers’ matches from a rocking chair on the entrance ramp.  The more intriguing question is why he’s on the show at all, since the crowd won’t have a clue who he is.  Is he just there to fill a couple of dead minutes, or is this a way to launch him onto the main roster?

4.  WWE Tag Team Title: Team Hell No (Daniel Bryan & Kane) v Team Rhodes Scholars (Cody Rhodes & Damien Sandow).  Yes, this match again.  The feud was somewhat delayed by a legitimate injury to Cody Rhodes, but now everything seems to be back on track.  I’m inclined to agree that Hell No’s tag title reign has probably gone as far as it can; the two no longer need the titles to justify continuing their “odd couple” act anyway; and the Rhodes Scholars are more in need of the titles.  It’ll be a decent midcard match and the heels should probably win.

5.  WWE United States Title: Antonio Cesaro v The Miz.  This is airing on YouTube as the warm-up match, which would normally suggest zero chance of a title change.  But Miz has recently turned babyface, and they’re trying to push him (god help us) as the second coming of Ric Flair, complete with Flair’s personal endorsement and permission to use his finishing move.  I can’t see this working, but the company seems determined to try.  If this was on the main show I’d be guessing that a title switch was quite likely.  But on YouTube?  Surely not.  Cesaro is excellent, Miz is perfectly okay, and the match should be as good as its warm-up nature permits.

Worth getting?  It’s the Royal Rumble and the Rock’s wrestling.  Seriously, now.