You know where this is heading.

1. Tones & I – “Dance Monkey”

Eleven weeks. Can it hold on for the Christmas number one? Almost certainly not, because it peaked several weeks ago, and so the downweighting rule ought to kick in next week. Barring a miracle, “Dance Monkey” will land at joint seventh on the all time record list, alongside “Despacito” and Slim Whitman’s 1955 hit “Rose Marie”.

“Own It” by Stormzy featuring Ed Sheeran and Burna Boy climbs to 2 after a fortnight at number 3. “All I Want for Christmas is You” by Mariah Carey advances 8-6. “Last Christmas” by Wham moves 13-7. “River” by Ellie Goulding climbs 14-8 – it may be a Christmas single but it’s also her highest position since “On My Mind” reached number 5 in 2015.

11. Harry Styles – “Adore You”

(The song begins about two and a half minutes in to this very elaborate, somewhat twee magical realism video.) So how’s the promotion of Harry Styles, MOR solo act, doing? “Lights Up” debuted at number 3 and looked at first like a one-week fanbase sale, dropping straight out of the top 10 in its second week. But… it’s hung around for nine weeks, currently sitting at number 33, so it’s not done so badly. Followup “Watermelon Sugar” entered at 35, climbed to 28, and then dropped straight out of the top 40. Hmm. Releasing in a quiet week when there isn’t much else to compete with looks like a smart move. At any rate, it’s the only regular new entry we’re going to see this week.

“Fairytale of New York” by the Pogues featuring Kirsty MacColl climbs 22-14; “Do They Know It’s Christmas” by Band Aid climbs 23-15; “Merry Christmas Everyone” by Shakin’ Stevens climbs 26-16; “Step Into Christmas” by Elton John climbs 39-24; “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas” by Michael Bublé climbs 32-25.

29. Leona Lewis – “One More Sleep”

This reached number 3 on its release in 2013 and vanished for a few years before starting its annual top 40 afterlife in 2017. It reached number 8 last year. For a record that’s so obviously calculated to sound like a Christmas standard, it’s actually not bad at all.

“Santa Tell Me” by Ariana Grande climbs 33-31.

32. Brenda Lee – “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree”

Originally a number 6 hit in 1962, this started making annual returns in 2016. It made the top 10 in 2017 but only got to number 16 last year.

34. Wizzard – “I Wish It Could Be Christmas Everyday”

Originally number 4 in 1973, this showed up again in 2007 and 2008, then in every year from 2011 to date. It got to number 12 last year – its highest position of the digital era.

36. Slade – “Merry Xmas Everybody”

The Christmas number one of 1973. Surprisingly, given its supposed status as an A-list British Christmas single, this goes through patches of not charting – it made the top 40 in 2006-2008, 2011-2012, and 2016 onwards. Last year it got to 17.

39. Kelly Clarkson – “Underneath the Tree”

Originally a number 30 hit in 2013, this seems to have joined the perennials over the last two years. Like “One More Sleep”, it’s very obviously calculated but somehow still manages to be quite good.

On the album chart, unusually we have two albums climbing to number one in as many weeks. “You’re in my Heart” by Rod Stewart climbs 2-1 to become his tenth number one album, over a period spanning back to 1971.

3. The Who – “WHO”

At this late date, this is indeed a new Who album – they release plenty of back catalogue and live material but they haven’t released an actual studio album since 2006’s “Endlesswire” (and they haven’t been as high as number 3 since “Face Dances” in 1981). The song above is actually a reworking of Pete Townshend’s solo track “Guantanamo”, which was a bonus track from his 2015 best-of album.

13. Colin Thackery – “Love Changes Everything”

The 89-year-old winner of this year’s Britain’s Got Talent. The album is mainly covers of standards, although for some reason it also has a version of Ed Sheeran’s “Supermarket Flowers”.

Number 14 is “Romance” by Camila Cabello – a disappointing position for the follow-up to 2018’s “Camila” (number 2). It includes the summer number 1 single “Senorita”.

Number 17 is “LP1” by Liam Payne, formerly of One Direction. It includes his singles going back to mid 2017; the biggest was his number 3 debut “Strip That Down”.

23. Kylie Minogue – “Kylie – Golden – Live in Concert”

Self-explanatory, really.

39. Roddy Ricch – “Please Excuse Me For Being Antisocial”

And finally, Californian rapper Roddy Ricch makes his first appearance on the album top 40. He did have a hit single earlier this year – “How It Is”, which reached number 18 in the spring – but it’s not on the album.